Nelson Mandela's African National Congress (ANC), which ended white rule in South Africa, has ended its 30-year long term in power.
As of 2 p.m. on the 31st (local time), when about two-thirds of the votes in the South African general election held on the 29th had been counted, AP and Reuters reported that the South African National Election Commission was counting that the African National Congress had won about 42% of the votes. The National Congress's vote rate of 42% was more than 15 percentage points lower than the 2019 general election. With the vote counting rate exceeding 65%, it appears that it will be difficult for the South African National Congress to secure a majority of votes. The South African National Congress has maintained sole power for 30 years, winning more than 50% of the vote in every general election since 1994, when Mandela came to power.
Although the National Congress did not receive a majority of more than 50% of the votes, it maintained first place. The Democratic Alliance came in second place with 23%. Umkhontowisizwe (MK), newly founded by former President Jacob Zuma from the National Congress, followed with 11.92%. The South African Parliament, which has a total of 400 seats, distributes seats according to the votes received by political parties, and the president is elected by the parliament. If the National Congress does not receive a 50% majority vote, it must form a coalition government with the opposition party.
Even before this general election, red lights were turned on for the National Congress to take power alone. In the last opinion poll conducted just before the election, the National Congress recorded an approval rating of 38.5-42.2%. During the 30-year rule of the National Congress, South Africa suffered from a widening gap between rich and poor, worsening public security, and power shortages. Even within the National Congress, power struggles and corruption were rampant. The reason it remained in power for 30 years despite the incompetence and mismanagement of the National Congress was because there was no suitable alternative force in addition to its symbolism as Nelson Mandela's party.
As the National Congress's sole rule over the past 30 years came to an end and a coalition government became inevitable, South Africa's political situation was placed in an uncertain situation. President Cyril Ramaphosa, leader of the National Congress party, reportedly has no intention of resigning despite his election defeat. President Ramaphosa, who is seeking his second term, must win at least 201 seats in the newly formed parliament.
In order for the National Congress to form a coalition, realistically, it would have to join hands with the Democratic Alliance, which ranked second, or Umkhontowisizwe, which ranked third. However, it is questionable whether a coalition government will be possible because the Democratic Alliance and Umkhontowisizwe have strong anti-nationalist tendencies. Even if coalition negotiations begin, difficulties are expected. John Steenheisen, head of the pro-business, center-right Democratic Alliance, answered “no” to reporters’ question on this day whether he was negotiating a coalition government. As the National Congress government has recently become closer to Russia and its relationship with the West, including the United States, has become estranged, the challenge from pro-Western forces in South Africa is expected to intensify.