With former U.S. President Donald Trump being found guilty, attention is being paid to what kind of punishment the court will impose on July 11 and what impact it will have on the presidential election.
The crime admitted to former President Trump is punishable by 16 months to 4 years in prison. Since there is no constitutional provision preventing people with criminal records or prisoners from running for president, former President Trump can run for office even if he is imprisoned.
However, the prevailing view is that he will avoid arrest for various reasons, including appeals. Former President Trump's lawyer, Todd Blanch, said after the verdict was announced on the 30th that he would appeal as soon as possible. The entire appeal process can take up to six months. There is a possibility that the appeal trial will begin in earnest only after the November 5 presidential election. The appellate court often suspends the execution of the penalty imposed by the first trial.
Judge Juan Mercan, who presided over this trial, may sentence him to probation or a fine rather than a prison sentence. Here, a condition may be imposed that requires permission to leave New York State.
Being a strong presidential candidate may also help avoid severe punishment. During the trial, Judge Merchan mentioned that former President Trump was a strong presidential candidate and said, “I do not want to suppress the defendant’s freedom of expression.” Therefore, it is expected that Judge Merchan will not impose a penalty that restricts election campaigning.
Former President Trump must now undergo an investigation by the New York City Probation Department for incident-related circumstances and mental health checks, which will serve as a reference in determining the type and severity of his sentence. The fact that he has no criminal record and that he is old (77 years old) are favorable factors in receiving leniency. The fact that he admits his sin and does not reflect on it is a disadvantage.